Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams

Ethiopia is growing fast, and the country has a dire need of energy. To avoid environmental damages, however, looking for green energy polices, including hydropower exploitation, with large water availability (i.e., Blue Nile, greatest tributary Nile river). Besides other dams on Omo river, GIBE family, now building largest plant Africa, GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), leading to tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt, due potentially conflictive management. In addition, present prospective climate change may affect reservoirs’ operation, this thereby relevant downstream users, population, environment. Here, we evaluated management GERD, III dams, under present, future hydrological conditions until 2100. We used two models, namely, Poli-Hydro Poli-Power, describe (i) budget, flow routing (ii) optimal/maximum production from unconstrained no release besides MIF) constrained fair downstream) simulation. then scenarios reports CMIP5/6 Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) 2100, assess production. Our results demonstrate that filling phase particularly critical, have optimal time 5 years or so. Stream flows at could be greater than ones (control run CR) half century (2050–2059), but there decrease end (2090–2099). Energy increase, century. discharges would increase both century, so Constrained, simulation provide in practice similar results, suggesting potential shared plants.